Then will Venizelos sell the Salamis to another nation? Since Greece ain't part of the Washington Naval Treaty, it could sell to any nation that wanted a new warship (Netherlands the most likely, for exemple)
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
I have some questions about Constantinople... How will be fare Constantinople, in this TL? What 'd is the city economy compared to OTL? Would be attracting migrants or rather 'expelling' their workforce in seek work in Greece? Also, the hypothetical migrants 'd is only Greeks workers or 'd attracts to Turks work migrants, too?
formion
Banned
Regarding migrants, I think we may see a significant White Russian population. Moreover in OTL 1921, if I remember correctly, 30k Armenians migrated there.
When it comes to economy, I think the author can tell us who controls the city's policy and if there are tarrifs to Greece and Turkey. If there are tarrifs, it is possible to see an economy based on services and logistics. If there are no tarrifs, we may very well see industrial development. In any case, I think the industrial development will be smaller than OTL where it was the major industrial center servicing a turkish market of more than 13 million people.
Washington does not allow the export of warships already in service. It says nothing about building ships for export, the same arguably holds for ships under construction. In the case of the Netherlands they wanted battleships before WW1, again before WW2 but I've seen nothing about them wanting battleships between the wars in the 1920s. Actually the Netherlands was one of the three powers (along with Norway and Denmark) unequivocally accepting the current status qwo for their battleship tonnage during the Rome naval conference in 1924. But that was all of 22,000t at the time (21,809 to be exact) and with a 20 year replacement rule (like WNT) half of that would had been tied down by De Zeven Provincien and Jacob van Heemskerck till 1928-30. Not the actions of a country wanting to get new battleships...
In the short term Contantinople's economy is larger than OTL for the simple reason that ~200,000 Greeks and ~100,000 Armenians are still there and have no economic restrictions like the OTL laws restricting access to several occupations to the Greeks that remained back. On the other hand it's difficult to see getting to today's 10-15 million people, if it does not revert to Turkish control, although by some aspects this could well be a good thing. The Constantinople of 1940 may well be richer and larger than that of OTL. The Constantinople of 2020? Depending on what happens in the meantime it may well be much smaller... though not necessarily poorer in terms of overall GDP.
League of Nations High commisioner is Aristeides Stergiadis and given his track record there is every reason to expect he remains in power for the next several years. Tariffs... are an interesting question. If there are no tariff walls between Greece and Constantinople and Turkey and Constantinople... why that means that there are no tariff walls between Greece and Turkey. A Greek exporter would just ship his goods to Constantinople and then push them from Constantinople to Turkey and oups no tariffs along the way. Given the facts on the ground that means any Turkish attempt and protectionism and state sponsored industrial development as in OTL is dead on arrival. Turkey made a point to remove the capitulations no matter the cost in the peace treaty only to end up with Greek merchants and industrialists taking advantage of this? So the Sivas government has reasons to put tariffs on Constantinople... too bad the Greeks do not have similar reasons which means Constantinople would be gradually getting incorporated more and more into the Greek economy.
Industrial development, Turkish industrial development will be for obvious concentrating away from Constantinople, Sivas as the de facto capital will be a major industrial hub with the Turkish government encouraging this. So would be things like universities.
The White Russians are an interesting question for which I have no definite answer. About 200,000 reached Constantinople with the White Russian collapse. Not many were left OTL by 1923-24. Here their number is liable to be higher but how much higher? The Greeks would certainly not mind yet more Christians in the population of Constantinople, but by the same token would not necessarily like the fact they are Russians given the Russian aspirations on Constantinople...
Part 23 Of conspiracies and elections
London, July 7th, 1923
David Lloyd George, declared a victory of his government's foreign policy over the just concluded Corfu crisis, then went to the king and asked for a snap election, normally the election should had been held no later than December 1923. In truth it was clear to everyone that the coalition government was running out of steam for the past year if not earlier. Both Lloyd George's National Liberals and the Conservatives were preparing to enter the elections separately when they came and the coalition had had a close call during the crisis when the British government had quietly contacted the dominions over the option of British led League of Nations action to force Italy out of Corfu. Reaction from the Dominions particularly from the Canadian government had been cool but the debate had remained mostly behind the scenes. [1] The Conservatives had even debated leaving the government, but given public outrage for the Italian attack on Corfu had decided against any rash movements. Only for Lloyd George to pre-empt them it now appeared.
Britain, August 4th, 1923
The elections had failed to produce a decisive result. The Conservatives under Stanley Baldwin, Andrew Bonar Law had retired from party leadership for health reasons, had gained 38% of the vote and 258 seats, fifty short of a majority. Labour under John Robert Clynes [2] had gained 29.7% of the vote a nearly 40% increase from 1918 and 166 seats. The Liberals for all their internal problems, neither of the Asquith and Lloyd George factions were very happy with each other to put it mildly although Baldwin's support for protective tariffs in the lead-up to the election had unintentionally helped bring the two factions closer together, had managed to come slightly ahead of Labour in the popular vote with 30.7% and 183 seats. [3] David Lloyd George would remain prime minister for a while yet forming a minority government with Labours tolerance and limited participation in the government. This did not stand well with everyone in the Liberals. Winston Churchill would refuse to join a government backed by labour and stood initially as an independent. Within a year he would cross the floor and join the conservatives.
Dublin, August 27th, 1923
Prime minister Michael Collins still had a slight limp from a bullet that had wounded him during an ambush in the civil war the previous year, it could had turned lethal he reflected had he not accidentally delayed his departure reading a newspaper on the ongoing exchange of populations between Greece and Turkey in the aftermath of the treaty of Chantilly, an ordered compensated exchange of populations could be a solution to the question of North Ireland after all. [4] The pro-treaty Sinn Fein under his guidance, he had staunchly rejected proposals for a new party, had done well in the elections gaining 43,3% of the popular vote and 83 seats in the Irish Parliament, forming a majority. The anti-treaty Sinn Fein under Eamon De Valera had still come second with 27.4% of the vote and 34 seats. The smaller Labour and Farmers parties had fared far worse gaining 14 and 5 seats respectively.
Greece and Turkey, September 1923
The last exchangees reached their new countries. Nearly 2,280,000 people, 845,000 of the Greek and Armenian had moved in either direction under a League of Nations commission led by Norwegian Friedrich Nansen. For a change both governments had cooperated in the commission and had done their best to make the exchange as orderly as possible, with exchangees bringing with them all their movable property and assessments of their landed properties for compensation in their new countries with Constantinople banks, accessible from both sides of the border, proving a help to the process. Things had often proven considerably more problematic on the ground, particularly in the case of the Pontic Greeks and the Armenians who had been often lucky to get out alive, but the exchange had been generally considered a success by both governments and the League. [5] The Sivas government had been forced to concentrate on the matter above all else, even according to its own statistics the number of Greeks and Armenians in its territory in 1914 was in excess of the 1.4 million refugees it was receiving, but this was not making the task any less titanic for a country that had been nearly constantly at war since 1911. Even though she was not a member of the League of Nations, Turkey had used her help to contract a loan of about 12.3 million pounds, mostly from US banks to help with resettlement. At about 7% interest and 88% price of issue, terms could had been better but were not necessarily much worse than past Ottoman loans. [6] Greece, in a much better economic and diplomatic situation, even though it was receiving another 200,000 refugees from the Soviet Union and Bulgaria, had also contracted loans but on quite better terms.
Athens, October 2nd, 1923
Queen consort Aspasia was again pregnant, she had been actually already in her fourth month of pregnancy now that it was announced. That was a problem for the split royalists. Currently even if the more staunch royalists thought that it was high time for Alexander to renounce the throne in favour of his brother George, a prospect that Alexander who was more interested in cars than the throne would not had minded in the slightest had circumstances been different, who was the legitimate successor to Constantine from the royalist point of view, there was no disagreement over the line of succession after George, prince Paul stood to succeed Alexander as well after all. But if a son was born to Alexander and he was proclaimed crown prince, the legitimist cause would suffer a mortal blow. It was all well an fine to say Aspasia was not a royal. This was more than compensated in a country like Greece by the fact she was Greek, accusations that the dynasty was foreign, were always coming fast from enemies of the dynasty. [7]
News of an agreement between the Venizelos government and the opposition, Nikolaos Stratos of the Reform Conservative party and Ion Dragoumis, who had recently renamed hi "Macedonian group" to National party, after the death of Dimitrios Gounaris its main leaders in parliament over the matter of Royalish officers cashiered in 1917 who had not returned to service in 1921 further exacerbated things for the Royalists. Under the agreement all the officers, not convicted of crimes, would not be returned to active service, instead would be reinstated and immediately retired and pensioned with their 1917 ranks, any not too old would be placed on the reserve list, while any proffesionaly competent that so desired could join the civil administration, mostly as engineers. Further Victor Dousmanis, the head of the general staff under Constantine would be fully pardoned and also receive his pension. The pardon pointedly did not include Ioannis Metaxas still in exile in Italy, who had been convicted to death in 1920. It wouldn't do to have such issues closed by compromise...
Athens, October 16th, 1923
The chief royalists met in secret to debate their situation, the grip of Venizelism on Greece was growing with every passing day between victory in the war, Venizelos restoring the excesses of his 1917-20 government and not least the exchange of populations. The Muslims now leaving had overwhelmingly voted against Venizelos and for the royalists in 1915 and 1920. The Anatolian Greeks and Armenians that had come to Greece would be just as overwhelmingly voting for the Venizelists [8]. It was notable who participated and who not in the meeting. Stratos and Dragoumis were not, they had not been invited or knew of the meeting in the first place. The new Italian ambassador was. Two weeks later Metaxas would be secretly invited by Mussolini in the Palazzo Venezia.
[1] This is not quite the mess that the OTL Chanak crisis was, but the Lloyd George cabinet has given more enthusiastic support to Greece than the conservatives in OTL and underlying trends, ie the dominions wanting their own say in foreign policy is unaltered.
[2] This is the first election from 1918, hence Ramsay MacDonald is still out of parliament and thus has not taken over the party again.
[3] I gave Labour its OTL 1922 performance under Clynes and the difference between 1922 to 1923 to the Liberals who thus come slightly ahead of the popular vote instead of slightly behind. Does it mean such a swing in parliamentary seats? Frankly no idea first past the post is notoriously problematic from the point of calculating electoral results based just on overall popular vote. But the cube law usually gives a reasonable approximation, so used it to split seats between Liberals and Labour.
[4] What you expected butterflies not to start showing up?
[5] Suffice to say the actual people being exchanged may well have a pointedly different opinion to put it mildly. But the OTL exchange, which was under worse conditions has been also hailed as a great success.
[6] A copy of the Greek refugee loan of 1924 actually.
[7] Can relate from personal experience. You could hear in the 1980s from anti-monarchists that "the Glucksburgs were foreigners and not one of them besides poor Alexander ever deigned to marry a Greek" it is way worse in the 1920s.
[8] In OTL they voted about 90% Venizelist in the 1920s, it fell to about 80% in the 1930s.
David Lloyd George, declared a victory of his government's foreign policy over the just concluded Corfu crisis, then went to the king and asked for a snap election, normally the election should had been held no later than December 1923. In truth it was clear to everyone that the coalition government was running out of steam for the past year if not earlier. Both Lloyd George's National Liberals and the Conservatives were preparing to enter the elections separately when they came and the coalition had had a close call during the crisis when the British government had quietly contacted the dominions over the option of British led League of Nations action to force Italy out of Corfu. Reaction from the Dominions particularly from the Canadian government had been cool but the debate had remained mostly behind the scenes. [1] The Conservatives had even debated leaving the government, but given public outrage for the Italian attack on Corfu had decided against any rash movements. Only for Lloyd George to pre-empt them it now appeared.
Britain, August 4th, 1923
The elections had failed to produce a decisive result. The Conservatives under Stanley Baldwin, Andrew Bonar Law had retired from party leadership for health reasons, had gained 38% of the vote and 258 seats, fifty short of a majority. Labour under John Robert Clynes [2] had gained 29.7% of the vote a nearly 40% increase from 1918 and 166 seats. The Liberals for all their internal problems, neither of the Asquith and Lloyd George factions were very happy with each other to put it mildly although Baldwin's support for protective tariffs in the lead-up to the election had unintentionally helped bring the two factions closer together, had managed to come slightly ahead of Labour in the popular vote with 30.7% and 183 seats. [3] David Lloyd George would remain prime minister for a while yet forming a minority government with Labours tolerance and limited participation in the government. This did not stand well with everyone in the Liberals. Winston Churchill would refuse to join a government backed by labour and stood initially as an independent. Within a year he would cross the floor and join the conservatives.
Dublin, August 27th, 1923
Prime minister Michael Collins still had a slight limp from a bullet that had wounded him during an ambush in the civil war the previous year, it could had turned lethal he reflected had he not accidentally delayed his departure reading a newspaper on the ongoing exchange of populations between Greece and Turkey in the aftermath of the treaty of Chantilly, an ordered compensated exchange of populations could be a solution to the question of North Ireland after all. [4] The pro-treaty Sinn Fein under his guidance, he had staunchly rejected proposals for a new party, had done well in the elections gaining 43,3% of the popular vote and 83 seats in the Irish Parliament, forming a majority. The anti-treaty Sinn Fein under Eamon De Valera had still come second with 27.4% of the vote and 34 seats. The smaller Labour and Farmers parties had fared far worse gaining 14 and 5 seats respectively.
Greece and Turkey, September 1923
The last exchangees reached their new countries. Nearly 2,280,000 people, 845,000 of the Greek and Armenian had moved in either direction under a League of Nations commission led by Norwegian Friedrich Nansen. For a change both governments had cooperated in the commission and had done their best to make the exchange as orderly as possible, with exchangees bringing with them all their movable property and assessments of their landed properties for compensation in their new countries with Constantinople banks, accessible from both sides of the border, proving a help to the process. Things had often proven considerably more problematic on the ground, particularly in the case of the Pontic Greeks and the Armenians who had been often lucky to get out alive, but the exchange had been generally considered a success by both governments and the League. [5] The Sivas government had been forced to concentrate on the matter above all else, even according to its own statistics the number of Greeks and Armenians in its territory in 1914 was in excess of the 1.4 million refugees it was receiving, but this was not making the task any less titanic for a country that had been nearly constantly at war since 1911. Even though she was not a member of the League of Nations, Turkey had used her help to contract a loan of about 12.3 million pounds, mostly from US banks to help with resettlement. At about 7% interest and 88% price of issue, terms could had been better but were not necessarily much worse than past Ottoman loans. [6] Greece, in a much better economic and diplomatic situation, even though it was receiving another 200,000 refugees from the Soviet Union and Bulgaria, had also contracted loans but on quite better terms.
Athens, October 2nd, 1923
Queen consort Aspasia was again pregnant, she had been actually already in her fourth month of pregnancy now that it was announced. That was a problem for the split royalists. Currently even if the more staunch royalists thought that it was high time for Alexander to renounce the throne in favour of his brother George, a prospect that Alexander who was more interested in cars than the throne would not had minded in the slightest had circumstances been different, who was the legitimate successor to Constantine from the royalist point of view, there was no disagreement over the line of succession after George, prince Paul stood to succeed Alexander as well after all. But if a son was born to Alexander and he was proclaimed crown prince, the legitimist cause would suffer a mortal blow. It was all well an fine to say Aspasia was not a royal. This was more than compensated in a country like Greece by the fact she was Greek, accusations that the dynasty was foreign, were always coming fast from enemies of the dynasty. [7]
News of an agreement between the Venizelos government and the opposition, Nikolaos Stratos of the Reform Conservative party and Ion Dragoumis, who had recently renamed hi "Macedonian group" to National party, after the death of Dimitrios Gounaris its main leaders in parliament over the matter of Royalish officers cashiered in 1917 who had not returned to service in 1921 further exacerbated things for the Royalists. Under the agreement all the officers, not convicted of crimes, would not be returned to active service, instead would be reinstated and immediately retired and pensioned with their 1917 ranks, any not too old would be placed on the reserve list, while any proffesionaly competent that so desired could join the civil administration, mostly as engineers. Further Victor Dousmanis, the head of the general staff under Constantine would be fully pardoned and also receive his pension. The pardon pointedly did not include Ioannis Metaxas still in exile in Italy, who had been convicted to death in 1920. It wouldn't do to have such issues closed by compromise...
Athens, October 16th, 1923
The chief royalists met in secret to debate their situation, the grip of Venizelism on Greece was growing with every passing day between victory in the war, Venizelos restoring the excesses of his 1917-20 government and not least the exchange of populations. The Muslims now leaving had overwhelmingly voted against Venizelos and for the royalists in 1915 and 1920. The Anatolian Greeks and Armenians that had come to Greece would be just as overwhelmingly voting for the Venizelists [8]. It was notable who participated and who not in the meeting. Stratos and Dragoumis were not, they had not been invited or knew of the meeting in the first place. The new Italian ambassador was. Two weeks later Metaxas would be secretly invited by Mussolini in the Palazzo Venezia.
[1] This is not quite the mess that the OTL Chanak crisis was, but the Lloyd George cabinet has given more enthusiastic support to Greece than the conservatives in OTL and underlying trends, ie the dominions wanting their own say in foreign policy is unaltered.
[2] This is the first election from 1918, hence Ramsay MacDonald is still out of parliament and thus has not taken over the party again.
[3] I gave Labour its OTL 1922 performance under Clynes and the difference between 1922 to 1923 to the Liberals who thus come slightly ahead of the popular vote instead of slightly behind. Does it mean such a swing in parliamentary seats? Frankly no idea first past the post is notoriously problematic from the point of calculating electoral results based just on overall popular vote. But the cube law usually gives a reasonable approximation, so used it to split seats between Liberals and Labour.
[4] What you expected butterflies not to start showing up?
[5] Suffice to say the actual people being exchanged may well have a pointedly different opinion to put it mildly. But the OTL exchange, which was under worse conditions has been also hailed as a great success.
[6] A copy of the Greek refugee loan of 1924 actually.
[7] Can relate from personal experience. You could hear in the 1980s from anti-monarchists that "the Glucksburgs were foreigners and not one of them besides poor Alexander ever deigned to marry a Greek" it is way worse in the 1920s.
[8] In OTL they voted about 90% Venizelist in the 1920s, it fell to about 80% in the 1930s.
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Also, Michael Collins surviving and staying in politics and that election, does it mean the Irish Civil War was averted??
Super excited to see Michael Collins surviving! Eamon De Valera's Ireland was not a very happy place I hear....
formion
Banned
First and foremost, I am excited to see an ATL Ireland led by Collins. @ShortsBelfast this is your queue: where there any thoughts for mutual population transfers in OTL?
The turkish loan is one of the most important butterflies of the story. In OTL kemalist Turkey managed to bet through the interwar with incredibly little borrowing. Now the Sivas government is between the proverbial devil and the deep blue sea.
a) First and foremost, they have to repay their share of the ottoman public debt by starting with a much smaller economy. The author stated that Turkey has 2/3 of its OTL GDP. In my honest opinion, if we also take into account the loss of the service and industry sector of Constantinople along with its port revenues, I find the figure a bit generous. What is left to the Sivas government has a great potential but with exception of the Black Sea coast and Cilicia is extremely underdeveloped, lagging decades behind the lost regions.
b) Regardless the question of GDP, in order to pay the ottoman debt and the new loan, Turkey needs to export products in order to get hard currency. TTL Turkey has retained perhaps 50% of its OTL exports. Therefore the hard currency that they can earn is halved, while the debt is higher.
c) In OTL Kemal had the luxury of focusing his 5-year industrial programs on heavy and war industry. Now the (limited) pre-war light industry that focused on consumer goods is gone. Gone are most of the textile factories, flour mills, distilleries and tanneries. First and foremost, the new Turkey needs to develop this sector. Otherwise, if they have to import even more consumer finished goods, they will become a failed state in a matter of years, as the hard currency outflow will be devastating.
d) There is a way to repay more easily the debt and industrialize: tapping the huge natural and human resources of Anatolia. There is one problem though: they need even more hard currency to import machinery, build railroads etc. This is a loop, as they cannot go back to capitulations and surrender newly won sovereignty to the hated western corporations. Frankly, I don't see how they can expand the railroad network in the same scale as in OTL. Certainly Sivas will be connected to the network, most probably Erzurum also. Any huge OTL expansion seems unlikely.
Therefore, I think the turkish economic conundrum doesn't have a solution, not at least before a catastrophic global event (WW2). For example, if they want to buy one or two 10,000 ton pocket battleships, they will have to not build even a single mile of additional railway beyond the Sivas-Erzerum connections. Or they won't be able to afford modern machinery for war-related industry. In general, come 1939, the turkish military and infrastructure will be in singificantly worse material situation compared to OTL.
The turkish loan is one of the most important butterflies of the story. In OTL kemalist Turkey managed to bet through the interwar with incredibly little borrowing. Now the Sivas government is between the proverbial devil and the deep blue sea.
a) First and foremost, they have to repay their share of the ottoman public debt by starting with a much smaller economy. The author stated that Turkey has 2/3 of its OTL GDP. In my honest opinion, if we also take into account the loss of the service and industry sector of Constantinople along with its port revenues, I find the figure a bit generous. What is left to the Sivas government has a great potential but with exception of the Black Sea coast and Cilicia is extremely underdeveloped, lagging decades behind the lost regions.
b) Regardless the question of GDP, in order to pay the ottoman debt and the new loan, Turkey needs to export products in order to get hard currency. TTL Turkey has retained perhaps 50% of its OTL exports. Therefore the hard currency that they can earn is halved, while the debt is higher.
c) In OTL Kemal had the luxury of focusing his 5-year industrial programs on heavy and war industry. Now the (limited) pre-war light industry that focused on consumer goods is gone. Gone are most of the textile factories, flour mills, distilleries and tanneries. First and foremost, the new Turkey needs to develop this sector. Otherwise, if they have to import even more consumer finished goods, they will become a failed state in a matter of years, as the hard currency outflow will be devastating.
d) There is a way to repay more easily the debt and industrialize: tapping the huge natural and human resources of Anatolia. There is one problem though: they need even more hard currency to import machinery, build railroads etc. This is a loop, as they cannot go back to capitulations and surrender newly won sovereignty to the hated western corporations. Frankly, I don't see how they can expand the railroad network in the same scale as in OTL. Certainly Sivas will be connected to the network, most probably Erzurum also. Any huge OTL expansion seems unlikely.
Therefore, I think the turkish economic conundrum doesn't have a solution, not at least before a catastrophic global event (WW2). For example, if they want to buy one or two 10,000 ton pocket battleships, they will have to not build even a single mile of additional railway beyond the Sivas-Erzerum connections. Or they won't be able to afford modern machinery for war-related industry. In general, come 1939, the turkish military and infrastructure will be in singificantly worse material situation compared to OTL.
It is possible but difficult to see happening. Protestants/Unionists were more evenly distributed across NI than they are today when a lot have migrated to the big towns. Back in the 1920s agriculture hasn't mechanised, the railways and canals are still large employers as are fishing and coastal shipping. Omagh and Strabane are still Protestant majority towns for instance. The demographic shift is more down to Protestants/Unionists adopting family planning two generations earlier than Catholics/Nationalists dominating whole regions of NI. Downpatrick is a Catholic town for instance but with a Protestant hinterland. Newry and Derry have Catholic majority populations but Protestants still make up around a third of both towns populations and own virtually all the major businesses and Belfast wants to hold on to the Mourne mountains in order to build reservoirs for Belfast and Lisburn. Shedding South Armagh is a possibility, Stormont never really wanted it but the Southern Irish weren't willing to swap it for Lifford (basically because a small industrial town paid more taxes than a larger region of hill farms). But don't forget that OTL NI has already shed Monaghan, Cavan and Donegal. They have held onto the majority of territories that they think they can hold. 1920 population distribution is not as evenly divided as 2020 where repartition would be vaguely feasible.
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formion
Banned
@ShortsBelfast thanks a lot for the illuminating reply!
If I may be so bold, I would like to tag @Rinasoir even though he doesnt seem to be a reader of this timeline, to ask him what policies would Collins promote? I am talking of course for a scenario that doesnt involve advice and investment from a German/Dubliner magnate.
Back on the topic of greek politics, it seems a coup is on the way with the blessings of Metaxas. Thats good. Time to prune the officer corps of its more reactionary members. Now that the majority of royalists have been reinstated, only the most extremists are out of the picture, so it is doomed to fail. Moreover, what a great way to discredit Metaxas: even if Benito puts him as a Quislig figure in WW2, he will have already lost credibility even among the royalists.
Lastly, a last comment on the economic condition of rump Turkey. If we are to generalize, when it comes to economy, the turkish Black Sea, Mediterranean and Marmara littoral belong to the 20th century (well, the least developed part of the western world anyway, same as the Balkans). Most of the anatolian hinterland belong to the 19th century. The kurdish regions of the south-east belong to the 18th century. So, we may talk about factories and railroads, but a great part of Anatolia doesn't even have access to macadam roads.
If I may be so bold, I would like to tag @Rinasoir even though he doesnt seem to be a reader of this timeline, to ask him what policies would Collins promote? I am talking of course for a scenario that doesnt involve advice and investment from a German/Dubliner magnate.
Back on the topic of greek politics, it seems a coup is on the way with the blessings of Metaxas. Thats good. Time to prune the officer corps of its more reactionary members. Now that the majority of royalists have been reinstated, only the most extremists are out of the picture, so it is doomed to fail. Moreover, what a great way to discredit Metaxas: even if Benito puts him as a Quislig figure in WW2, he will have already lost credibility even among the royalists.
Lastly, a last comment on the economic condition of rump Turkey. If we are to generalize, when it comes to economy, the turkish Black Sea, Mediterranean and Marmara littoral belong to the 20th century (well, the least developed part of the western world anyway, same as the Balkans). Most of the anatolian hinterland belong to the 19th century. The kurdish regions of the south-east belong to the 18th century. So, we may talk about factories and railroads, but a great part of Anatolia doesn't even have access to macadam roads.
Apologies to the OP but I was summoned.
It's early in the morning, and I'm not going through an entire thread to make 100% sure of everything that is going on, so the answer is to a vaguer degree than I'd like, but well, c'est la vie.
Collins was better at finances than just about anyone on the Nationalist side at the time, he was not Minister of Finance just for show. He was also more connected with the Irish emigre community in London than De Valera, which combined with his willingness to be more practical than Dev, means you could probably see him negotiating an earlier ending to land indemnities and international financing for rural infrastructure upgrades and some electrification. Ireland wouldn't be that radically different than OTL, simply because there is no real areas for it to grow at the time, but it can be in a better internal shape.
You would definitely see better Anglo-Irish relations however. That is provided the butterflies in the story don't see someone like Churchill as PM, in which case things would go bad fast.
formion
Banned
Oh well, the only butterfly regarding Ireland is that Collins survive the ambush.
Thank you for the reply!
Hypothetically speaking if seen from the Italian point of view should Greece become tied to the Italian sphere of influence is she still a problem? Alternatively if she has to deal with severe internal trouble is she that much of a problem? To take this to the logical next step how much does it cost to keep Metaxas and the Greek royalist ultras financed? After all Italy had no compunctions playing that very same game with the likes of Ante Pavelic and IMRO in Yugoslavia...
His death was during the civil war, which was won by his side. So no. It may be ending somewhat earlier though.
What can I say I have a soft spot for revolutionaries.
My logic is that even if it is not likely, it still was all the rage so to speak in the early 1920s. So Collins being interested on how it is working out is logical... thus butterflying the ambush that got him.
It may be generous but when in doubt go for the figure least convenient for the Greeks. Does wonders in helping keep things plausible.
In OTL Turkey took one loan of $10 million from Sweden at 6.5% and one from the Soviet Union free of interest for $8 million. Then in 1938 it took a 16 million pound loan from Britain, 6 million for arms and 10 million for industrial goods, the British were markedly difficult about it, and a 150 million reichsmarks loan from Germany on markedly better terms. Add to that the Ottoman public debt, that was 140 million in 1914, and apparently the Ottoman share of that was 84.6 million by 1933. In the same period Turkey was supposedly paying 7 million lira a year on the public debt, by other accounts it was 13-18% of the annual budget which fell to 5% by 1939. Of course Turkish budget was 210 million in 1930 and 400 million in 1940, so 13% is ~27 million in 1930 and 5% is ~20 million in 1939.
Now the additional loan, paid over 50 years means an additional 888,000 pounds a year, roughly 8.3 million Turkish lira. So loan payments by 1929 would need about 35 million. Call it 22% of government expenditure in 1929. That's not altogether tragic, Greece was paying up to 40% in the same years, but belies the problem of foreign currency availability, which Greece did not quite have at least to the same extend. Of course the same problem for Turkey very much existed in OTL...
How? For a solution... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chester_concession TTL the grand national assembly could well be more amenable...
There is one obvious answer that shall remain unnamed and another that is clearing, Germany under Schlacht was offering to Turkey twice the actual market price in the clearing agreements between the two countries. Of course this also means Turkey will be even more dependent on clearing agreements than OTL and particularly trade with Germany come the 1930s...
As a note the active officer corps is dominated by the Venizelists. Only a limited number of the Royalists removed in 1917 was reinstated in 1921 and the current deal effectively accepts that the rest will never return to service, unless there is a war of course. With every passing year it will be all the more difficult to bring them back to service.
On the bright side, based on his own writing he apparently was pretty fond of Collins personally. To quote him from volume 4 of the World Crisis
"Here I will record a few thoughts about this man, Michael Collins. He was an Irish patriot, true and fearless. His narrow upbringing and his whole early life had filled him with hatred of England. His hands had touched directly the springs of terrible deeds. We had hunted him for his life, and he had slipped half a dozen times through steel claws. But now he had no hatred of England. Love of Ireland still possessed his soul, but to it was added a wider comprehension. He had come in contact during the Treaty negotiations with men he liked; with men who played the game according to the agreed rules; he had plighted a new faith to act fairly by them. As Griffith seemed to rely especially upon Mr. Austen Chamberlain, so Michael Collins was deeply impressed by the personality of Lord Birkenhead. The transition of his sympathies can be followed in gradations through his speeches by anyone who cares to study them. Whereas he had had only one loyalty, he now had two. He was faithful to both; he died for both. When in future times the Irish Free State is not only the home of culture and of virtue, not only prosperous and happy, but an active, powerful, and annealing force in the British Commonwealth of Nations, regard will be paid by widening circles to his life and to his death."
Part 24 The broken road and the broken car
Munich, November 15th, 1923
Adolf Hitler would later claim he had been inspired by Mustafa Kemal and Benito Mussolini in his attempt to seize power. Unlike them his coup attempt had ended in a prison cell as the Bavarian state government instead of meekly submitting to the coup attempt had fought back. Hitler had fled only to be arrested a couple days after the collapse of the coup along with several of his followers and put on trial, he would be convicted but in practice his conviction would prove no more than a slap in the wrist. Herman Göring had been luckier as he had managed to escape to Austria only with a light wound.
Morocco, Rif republic, November 1923
About 100 Turkish volunteers had slipped through French Morocco into Rif. All of them where veterans of the Great war and the war with Greece. Language could had been a problem but most of them could speak Arabic at least after a fashion. Abd El-Krim lost no time putting them to use training Rifian soldiers. The Rifians made some of the best light infantry in the world as they had proven in action. But they were understandably lacking when it came to taking full advantage of the artillery and other heavy equipment they had captured from the Spanish. Soon this would start changing. And the Rifians had over 200 guns in their possession. in the meantime attacks on Spanish outposts continued without stop. The strain on Spain was growing. Already back in September a royal dictatorship under Miguel Primo de Rivera had taken over Spanish government...
Athens, November 25th, 1923
The 195 hp 8000cc engine of the Hispano-Suiza H6B, roared in the Kifisias avenue as it driver kept increasing speed as he drove it from down-town Athens, towards Marousi. The driver loved fast cars was very confident, perhaps excessively so, of his driving abilities and wanted above all else to test his new toy, in the straight empty road after one more boring meeting back in Athens. The speed showing in the speedometer kept increasing. 90 kph, 100 kph, 120 kph, 145 kph the maximum the car maker said the H6B could reach he observed with satisfaction. He was already near Psychiko. At this speed he failed to notice the puddle in the road yesterday's rain had opened. He lost control. Before he could regain it the car was out of the road and hit a tree. By the time gendarmes and civilians reached the accident site it was already too late. King Alexander of Greece was already dead, his neck broken by the crash.
Athens, November 29th, 1923
Eleutherios Venizelos cursed the idiot kid and his cars. He had received the report from the accident, if anything it was pure luck that more people had not died in the accident as Alexander had violated about every road safety rules there were and common sense. But it was not just any idiot kid it was the king of Greece. He had been given a public funeral with full military honours the previous day of course, while admiral Paul Koundouriotis had been proclaimed regent in a special session of the parliament. And now the matter of succession was again open. Perhaps bringing back George II might be the best compromise, but his own party had with good reason balked at the idea, Constantine's crown prince was considered perhaps wrongly as pro-German and responsible for 1915-17 along with his father. The current assembly had a mandate to amend the constitution, one of the amendments discussed had been changing the line of succession to the children of Alexander. But Alexander was now dead with no male children. Aspasia was pregnant but unborn children did not count in the line of succession. He could of course take the advice of Alexandros Papanastasiou, that it was high time for Greece to become a republic, Venizelos was personally sympathetic but found the timing questionable. Yes republicanism was growing in Greece but was it strong enough for such a step? With a sigh he start drafting the letter offering the throne to prince Paul of Greece...
Adolf Hitler would later claim he had been inspired by Mustafa Kemal and Benito Mussolini in his attempt to seize power. Unlike them his coup attempt had ended in a prison cell as the Bavarian state government instead of meekly submitting to the coup attempt had fought back. Hitler had fled only to be arrested a couple days after the collapse of the coup along with several of his followers and put on trial, he would be convicted but in practice his conviction would prove no more than a slap in the wrist. Herman Göring had been luckier as he had managed to escape to Austria only with a light wound.
Morocco, Rif republic, November 1923
About 100 Turkish volunteers had slipped through French Morocco into Rif. All of them where veterans of the Great war and the war with Greece. Language could had been a problem but most of them could speak Arabic at least after a fashion. Abd El-Krim lost no time putting them to use training Rifian soldiers. The Rifians made some of the best light infantry in the world as they had proven in action. But they were understandably lacking when it came to taking full advantage of the artillery and other heavy equipment they had captured from the Spanish. Soon this would start changing. And the Rifians had over 200 guns in their possession. in the meantime attacks on Spanish outposts continued without stop. The strain on Spain was growing. Already back in September a royal dictatorship under Miguel Primo de Rivera had taken over Spanish government...
Athens, November 25th, 1923
The 195 hp 8000cc engine of the Hispano-Suiza H6B, roared in the Kifisias avenue as it driver kept increasing speed as he drove it from down-town Athens, towards Marousi. The driver loved fast cars was very confident, perhaps excessively so, of his driving abilities and wanted above all else to test his new toy, in the straight empty road after one more boring meeting back in Athens. The speed showing in the speedometer kept increasing. 90 kph, 100 kph, 120 kph, 145 kph the maximum the car maker said the H6B could reach he observed with satisfaction. He was already near Psychiko. At this speed he failed to notice the puddle in the road yesterday's rain had opened. He lost control. Before he could regain it the car was out of the road and hit a tree. By the time gendarmes and civilians reached the accident site it was already too late. King Alexander of Greece was already dead, his neck broken by the crash.
Athens, November 29th, 1923
Eleutherios Venizelos cursed the idiot kid and his cars. He had received the report from the accident, if anything it was pure luck that more people had not died in the accident as Alexander had violated about every road safety rules there were and common sense. But it was not just any idiot kid it was the king of Greece. He had been given a public funeral with full military honours the previous day of course, while admiral Paul Koundouriotis had been proclaimed regent in a special session of the parliament. And now the matter of succession was again open. Perhaps bringing back George II might be the best compromise, but his own party had with good reason balked at the idea, Constantine's crown prince was considered perhaps wrongly as pro-German and responsible for 1915-17 along with his father. The current assembly had a mandate to amend the constitution, one of the amendments discussed had been changing the line of succession to the children of Alexander. But Alexander was now dead with no male children. Aspasia was pregnant but unborn children did not count in the line of succession. He could of course take the advice of Alexandros Papanastasiou, that it was high time for Greece to become a republic, Venizelos was personally sympathetic but found the timing questionable. Yes republicanism was growing in Greece but was it strong enough for such a step? With a sigh he start drafting the letter offering the throne to prince Paul of Greece...